The Myth of the Tight Presidential Race

The headline Washington Post chooses for its new poll showing a tight national popular vote race between the president and Mr. Romney says:

But this is wrong in what it implies. The headline, and much of the chatter around it, will tell you that the race is a tie. But popular votes don’t decide presidential elections, Electoral College votes do.

To get a better look at the actual state of the race, just go to FiveThirtyEight for Nate Silver’s forecasts, and you get a much different picture:

So sure, the popular vote is almost certainly “neck and neck.” But the actual presidential race is not.

Once again, there is a bag, and Obama’s victory is to be found within it.